GR-2022-11 · 2022 LENS · Indonesia · AsiaEnergy security: coal demand and stranded-capital risk
Near-term fuel demand and long-term asset value are different investment questions.
Published 20 September 2026 · Public research teaser
Illustrative photography. Not a GIS Reserve project or client.
The evidence
IEA Coal 2024 estimated global consumption at 8.77 billion tonnes in 2024 and projected 8.87 billion tonnes in 2027. These are estimates and forecasts of that vintage.
The business implication
The 2022 energy-security lens asks whether higher commodity revenue justified new fixed assets. Distinguish a short-life logistics investment from a long-life mine or power plant. Contract duration should be considered alongside rehabilitation liabilities and financing access.
What could change the result?
Weather, power dispatch, customer concentration and policy can move cash flow more sharply than global demand.
A practical decision framework
| Workstream | Decision question |
|---|
| Revenue | Grade, freight and buyer credit |
| Assets | Mine life and equipment redeployment |
| Exit | Closure costs and residual value |
A report built around your decision.
Offtake review, cost sensitivity, infrastructure options and closure-liability assessment inputs.
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Request scope & quotation ↗Sources & method
Sources checked 20 September 2026. Original GIS Reserve interpretation accompanies short summaries of public evidence. Scenarios are illustrative, not investment forecasts. No assurance of funding.
Research standards
RESERVE · RESEARCH & ADVISORY